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O que eu penso sobre o que está acontecendo.
Tecnologia, energia e gestão no ritmo da notícia. Aqui escrevo em primeira pessoa: uma tese por texto, com a experiência de quem lidera projetos de engenharia, P&D, educação e impacto social, acompanha o tema em congressos no Brasil e no exterior, e com opinião declarada. Quando o tema pede dados, o Radar xTech aprofunda; quando pede método, os artigos técnicos e os e-books.
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O gargalo é a rede, não o capital
A projeção da Selic caiu para 13,50%, mas o ritmo de data centers e da eletrificação no Brasil é definido pela rede, pela energia contratada e pela conformidade. O ciclo de 29 de setembro do Radar xTech registra o custo marginal de operação do ONS 42,9% mais alto em uma semana, o leilão de transmissão de R$ 8,9 bilhões em 30 de outubro, as consultas da Anatel sobre Wi-Fi externo em 6 GHz e a cláusula de 67% de energia limpa do acordo Mercosul-EFTA, que favorece a matriz brasileira. Com juro real de 9,53%, o project finance segue travado.
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O valor migra de quem gera energia para quem controla flexibilidade, cadeia de baterias e custo de capital
O primeiro leilão nacional de armazenamento recebeu quase 300 GW em cerca de 6 mil propostas, volume que converte o BESS de tese de inovação em decisão de alocação de capital. Ao mesmo tempo, o curtailment cresceu 21% entre janeiro e agosto de 2026, a Pnast do ONS registrou 9 GW de pedidos no Nordeste diante de capacidade remanescente nula até 2031, e a CCEE passou a aplicar novas Funções de Custo Futuro nos modelos de formação do PLD a partir de 2 de setembro. A consulta pública sobre o Processo Produtivo Básico de baterias propõe conteúdo local crescente até…
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Armazenamento, rede e demanda digital redefinem a economia da infraestrutura energética brasileira
Brazil’s renewable-energy expansion is entering a new phase. Installed generation capacity alone no longer determines economic value; grid access, storage, flexibility, firm demand and cost of capital increasingly shape asset competitiveness. A projected 34 GW of energy storage across Latin America by 2035, Brazil’s battery auction expected in December 2026, connection constraints affecting solar projects and the expansion of data centers point to the same structural shift. Capital is likely to move from standalone renewable generation toward integrated architectures combining generation, battery storage, transmission and large loads. Competitive advantage will increasingly depend on coordinating physical infrastructure, contracts, financing and regulation.
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A escassez migra da energia para a capacidade de escoamento e continuidade
Brazil’s energy system is moving beyond simply adding generation capacity, now grappling with the deeper challenge of managing infrastructure to secure both energy security and competitiveness. The simultaneous occurrence of curtailed renewable output and rising demand underscores the urgent need to optimize transmission, storage, digital payment systems, and telecommunications. This shift is prompting a rethink of investment strategy, with location, flexibility, and contractual guarantees now weighing more heavily than raw installed capacity. Greater automation, meanwhile, introduces new financial risks for power producers, even as reliable infrastructure becomes essential for sectors like data centers and fintech. Ultimately, how well bottlenecks are…
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A infraestrutura elétrica passa a definir a competitividade da inteligência artificial
The expansion of AI data centers is reshaping the link between digital infrastructure and power systems — a dynamic now visible in Brazil. Brazil’s grid operator (ONS) recently warned that data center loads are approaching 2 GW, just as a major gas-fired plant, GNA II, went offline, cutting 1.7 GW of capacity. Together, these events show that grid connection, flexibility, and contingency planning now determine whether new data center projects are viable. Racks reaching 400 kW strain power and cooling, pushing storage, dedicated generation, and financing into the same equation. Advantage now favors operators integrating computing, firm power, connectivity, capital,…
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Capital, regulação e potência firme passam a definir a nova vantagem competitiva da infraestrutura elétrica
The Brazilian electricity sector is entering a phase in which capital, regulation, firm capacity, and technology increasingly define competitive advantage. The announced release of R$5.03 billion for the CDE (Energy Development Account) improves financial predictability, while the opening of the free market to low-voltage consumers demands new digital, commercial, and risk-management capabilities. In the solar supply chain, stricter Chinese standards raise the risk of acquiring technologically outdated equipment. Data centers and energy storage, meanwhile, are amplifying the importance of grid connection, transmission, and licensing. Competitive advantage is shifting toward companies capable of integrating financing, infrastructure, procurement, regulation, and digital operations.
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A economia entra na era da escassez de infraestrutura para a abundância tecnológica
The global economy is reaching an inflection point where the maturity of renewable energy, batteries, artificial intelligence, and automation is shifting the primary bottleneck from technology to infrastructure. Power grids, connection capacity, firm power, equipment, financing, and regulation are becoming strategic assets in their own right. In Brazil, a renewable-heavy energy matrix and abundant natural resources offer a competitive edge, but high interest rates, regulatory uncertainty, and infrastructure constraints could limit the country’s ability to capture that value. The new competitive frontier will be defined by the capacity to integrate energy, digital infrastructure, capital, data, and institutional execution into platforms…
